Development of prognostic models to estimate the probability of lung injury one year after COVID-19-related hospitalization-a prospective study.

Background: Long-term effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) infection still under study. The objectives of this study were to identify persistent pulmonary lesions 1 year after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization and assess whether it is possible to estimate the probability that a patient develops these complications in the future. Methods: A prospective study of ≥18 years old patients hospitalized for SARS-COV-2 infection who develop persistent respiratory symptoms, lung function abnormalities or have radiological findings 6-8 weeks after hospital discharge. Logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors associated with a higher risk of developing respiratory problems. Models performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. Results: A total of 233 patients [median age 66 years [interquartile range (IQR): 56, 74]; 138 (59.2%) male] were categorized into two groups based on whether they stayed in the critical care unit (79 cases) or not (154). At the end of follow-up, 179 patients (76.8%) developed persistent respiratory symptoms, and 22 patients (9.4%) showed radiological fibrotic lesions with pulmonary function abnormalities (post-COVID-19 fibrotic pulmonary lesions). Our prognostic models created to predict persistent respiratory symptoms [post-COVID-19 functional status at initial visit (the higher the score, the higher the risk), and history of bronchial asthma] and post-COVID-19 fibrotic pulmonary lesions [female; FVC% (the higher the FVC%, the lower the probability); and critical care unit stay] one year after infection showed good (AUC 0.857; 95% CI: 0.799-0.915) and excellent performance (AUC 0.901; 95% CI: 0.837-0.964), respectively. Conclusions: Constructed models show good performance in identifying patients at risk of developing lung injury one year after COVID-19-related hospitalization.

Characterisation of the blood RNA host response underpinning severity in COVID-19 patients.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 has highly variable clinical manifestations, ranging from asymptomatic infection through to life-threatening disease. Host whole blood transcriptomics can offer unique insights into the biological processes underpinning infection and disease, as well as severity. We performed whole blood RNA Sequencing of individuals with varying degrees of COVID-19 severity. We used differential expression analysis and pathway enrichment analysis to explore how the blood transcriptome differs between individuals with mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19, performing pairwise comparisons between groups. Increasing COVID-19 severity was characterised by an abundance of inflammatory immune response genes and pathways, including many related to neutrophils and macrophages, in addition to an upregulation of immunoglobulin genes. In this study, for the first time, we show how immunomodulatory treatments commonly administered to COVID-19 patients greatly alter the transcriptome. Our insights into COVID-19 severity reveal the role of immune dysregulation in the progression to severe disease and highlight the need for further research exploring the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 and the inflammatory immune response.

A multi-tissue study of immune gene expression profiling highlights the key role of the nasal epithelium in COVID-19 severity.

Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) symptoms range from mild to severe illness; the cause for this differential response to infection remains unknown. Unravelling the immune mechanisms acting at different levels of the colonization process might be key to understand these differences. We carried out a multi-tissue (nasal, buccal and blood; n = 156) gene expression analysis of immune-related genes from patients affected by different COVID-19 severities, and healthy controls through the nCounter technology. Mild and asymptomatic cases showed a powerful innate antiviral response in nasal epithelium, characterized by activation of interferon (IFN) pathway and downstream cascades, successfully controlling the infection at local level. In contrast, weak macrophage/monocyte driven innate antiviral response and lack of IFN signalling activity were present in severe cases. Consequently, oral mucosa from severe patients showed signals of viral activity, cell arresting and viral dissemination to the lower respiratory tract, which ultimately could explain the exacerbated innate immune response and impaired adaptative immune responses observed at systemic level. Results from saliva transcriptome suggest that the buccal cavity might play a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection and dissemination in patients with worse prognosis. Co-expression network analysis adds further support to these findings, by detecting modules specifically correlated with severity involved in the abovementioned biological routes; this analysis also provides new candidate genes that might be tested as biomarkers in future studies. We also found tissue specific severity-related signatures mainly represented by genes involved in the innate immune system and cytokine/chemokine signalling. Local immune response could be key to determine the course of the systemic response and thus COVID-19 severity. Our findings provide a framework to investigate severity host gene biomarkers and pathways that might be relevant to diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy.

COVID-19 pneumonia in Galicia (Spain): Impact of prognostic factors and therapies on mortality and need for mechanical ventilation.

INTRODUCTION: This study was aimed to identify risk factors associated with unfavorable outcomes (composite outcome variable: mortality and need for mechanical ventilation) in patients hospitalized in Galicia with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: Retrospective, multicenter, observational study carried out in the 8 Galician tertiary hospitals. All Patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia from 1st of March to April 24th, 2020 were included. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify the relationship between risk factors, therapeutic interventions and the composite outcome variable. RESULTS: A total of 1292 patients (56.1% male) were included. Two hundred and twenty-five (17.4%) died and 327 (25.3%) reached the main outcome variable. Age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.04)], CRP quartiles 3 and 4 [OR = 2.24 (95% CI: 1.39-3.63)] and [OR = 3.04 (95% CI: 1.88-4.92)], respectively, Charlson index [OR = 1.16 (95%CI: 1.06-1.26)], SaO2 upon admission [OR = 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.95)], hydroxychloroquine prescription [OR = 0.22 (95%CI: 0.12-0.37)], systemic corticosteroids prescription [OR = 1.99 (95%CI: 1.45-2.75)], and tocilizumab prescription [OR = 3.39 (95%CI: 2.15-5.36)], significantly impacted the outcome. Sensitivity analysis using different alternative logistic regression models identified consistently the ratio admissions/hospital beds as a predictor of the outcome [OR = 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11)]. CONCLUSION: These findings may help to identify patients at hospital admission with a higher risk of death and may urge healthcare authorities to implement policies aimed at reducing deaths by increasing the availability of hospital beds.

Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients.

The prognosis of a patient with COVID-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to severe disease was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Calibration and discrimination (receiver operating characteristics curves and AUC) were assessed to determine model performance. During the study period 1152 patients presented with SARS-CoV-2 infection, of whom 229 (19.9%) were admitted for pneumonia. During hospitalization, 51 (22.3%) progressed to severe disease, of whom 26 required ICU care (11.4); 17 (7.4%) underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 32 (14%) died of any cause. Five predictors determined within 24 h of admission were identified: Diabetes, Age, Lymphocyte count, SaO2, and pH (DALSH score). The prediction model showed a good clinical performance, including discrimination (AUC 0.87 CI 0.81, 0.92) and calibration (Brier score = 0.11). In total, 0%, 12%, and 50% of patients with severity risk scores ≤ 5%, 6-25%, and > 25% exhibited disease progression, respectively. A risk score based on five factors predicts disease progression and facilitates early decision-making according to prognosis.

Increased Serum Levels of sCD14 and sCD163 Indicate a Preponderant Role for Monocytes in COVID-19 Immunopathology.

Background: Emerging evidence indicates a potential role for monocytes in COVID-19 immunopathology. We investigated two soluble markers of monocyte activation, sCD14 and sCD163, in COVID-19 patients, with the aim of characterizing their potential role in monocyte-macrophage disease immunopathology. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind. Methods: Fifty-nine SARS-Cov-2 positive hospitalized patients, classified according to ICU or non-ICU admission requirement, were prospectively recruited and analyzed by ELISA for levels of sCD14 and sCD163, along with other laboratory parameters, and compared to a healthy control group. Results: sCD14 and sCD163 levels were significantly higher among COVID-19 patients, independently of ICU admission requirement, compared to the control group. We found a significant correlation between sCD14 levels and other inflammatory markers, particularly Interleukin-6, in the non-ICU patients group. sCD163 showed a moderate positive correlation with the time lapsed from admission to sampling, independently of severity group. Treatment with corticoids showed an interference with sCD14 levels, whereas hydroxychloroquine and tocilizumab did not. Conclusions: Monocyte-macrophage activation markers are increased and correlate with other inflammatory markers in SARS-Cov-2 infection, in association to hospital admission. These data suggest a preponderant role for monocyte-macrophage activation in the development of immunopathology of COVID-19 patients.